Sunday, September 12, 2010

How Favorites Changed My Life

Chalk players. Candy Asses. Losers. Sheep.
These and many other terms are used derisively to refer to handicappers who bet favorites. Everbody wants the big payday. They want to be the one to solve the race, beat the crowd and cash the big ticket on the longshot.
I know because I was one of those people, poring over the Racing Form, program and tip sheets for that one extra bit of information that would deliver the answer to longshot victory and its accompanying riches.
Everyone talks about the race they hit big. They don't talk about the 10 others they lost that day because the favorites hit the board.
I have had days when the ticket window seemed like an A.T.M., when I could no wrong. Other days I started out conservatively but suddenly found my self wheeling trifectas in a blast of adrenaline and racing hubris after a couple of winners. Some days I should have just stayed in the parking lot and burned dollar bills. I lacked consistency in the search for the next big rush.
There's a reason that horses are favorites. They still get beat, obviously. That's why they run the race. Horses defeat horses. They are, after all, still sinewy athletes with tiny brains subject to their own peculiar neuroses and the occasional off day.
But if you want to make steady money, then you have to run with the favorites.
Now, I have seen my share of betting systems, and most of them aren't worth a $2 win ticket. They are all get-rich-quick schemes, which means the only thing that happens quickly is that you lose money. I was skeptical of all systems until I ran across "How to 'Place Bet' on Favorites for a Living."
I was initially attracted to the book, written by, believe it or not, Mohammed Ali, because it was similar to a system I tried to devise some years back involving place bets on short fields. I was never able to make it work with any regularity, but the idea stuck with me.
Second, Mohammed Ali doesn't promise untold riches. In fact, his promo for the book promises to show you how to turn $15 into $157.28.
The system is relatively simple. It requires putting place bets on superfavorites and reinvesting some or all of the winnings on the next bet. Obviously this requires a consistent winning percentage based on avoiding upsets. "How to 'Place Bet' on Favorites for a Living" promises a place strike rate of about 96 percent.
I was intrigued and decided to give it a try. There are basically seven rules that govern the horse, track and race to determine the superfavorites and virtually guarantee a winning place bet.
 I applied the principles at Aqueduct in New York on one race day and managed to turn $15 into about $130. Thinking it could be beginner's luck, I tested it again the next weekend at OTB and had similar success.
I have since been using the system by betting online, and despite some setbacks -- even superfavorites get beaten from time to time -- I can reliably make $150 to $200 during a daily betting session.
The system in "How to 'Place Bet' on Favorites for a Living" seems eminently scalable. At this point it is not making me rich and I am in no danger of quitting my job, but it is a nice additional revenue stream, with the added benefit that money won is twice as sweet as money earned.

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